While the consensus forecast shows an economy sustaining growth, recent estimates have pushed the probability of recession to 33% based upon the latest Bloomberg survey.
While not sounding high on a historical basis this is a high level for this measure. Confirming figures of this slowing growth came in from ISM figures as both services (55.3) and manufacturing (53.0) grew, but below the rate of prior months. These ISM figures brought a mix of news.
While the service sector showed widespread growth, elevated recession chatter caused manufacturing hiring managers to become cautious as the ISM employment data showed a contraction to 47.4 from 50.2. Also reported was the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measure that estimates second quarter GDP declined 1.87%.
This contrasts with an economist consensus forecast of 3% for second quarter GDP.