There continues to be doubt a new bull market has begun. During the last 10 official U.S. Recessions, the median S&P 500 decline was about 24%. Last year, the S&P 500 drawdown was 25%.
The one important fact that is often missed on financial media is stocks bottom 6-9 months before earnings bottom. It is hard for people to visualize that stocks will anticipate the earnings trough.
Are there any signs growth may be better than expected and/or earnings are expected to improve? The internals of the market would suggest this may be the case as deep cyclical industries are showing the strongest gains.
Real Estate Services leads all industries over the last three months with a gain of 41%. Home construction is up 31%, Steel is up 30% and Semiconductors are up 28%.
Defensive industries such as Tobacco, Banking, Utilities and Aerospace are the laggards.